In a boastful press release
after the Paris attacks that left 130 dead earlier in the month, ISIS
celebrated its “victory” over the city it called the “lead carrier of
the cross.”
“Allah granted
victory upon their hands and cast terror into the hearts of the
crusaders in their very own homeland,” the group wrote.
The
medieval language is a glimpse into the terror group’s little-discussed
apocalyptic ideology, one that draws on prophecies written after
Muhammad’s death that were used to motivate Muslims to battle by caliphs
who lived more than a thousand years ago. While al-Qaida occasionally
hinted at these doomsday writings foretelling a grand battle with
infidels at the end of the world, ISIS has made them the bedrock of its
brand.
These prophecies are
so entwined with ISIS’ identity that the group has pasted a line from
one of them — “a Caliphate in Accordance with the Prophetic Method” — on
the coins it has minted, on the badges soldiers wear and even on a
billboard marking the beginning of ISIS territory. In that prophecy,
Muhammad said that after a “tyrannical monarchy,” an Islamic caliphate
would return. The formation of the caliphate would lead to a grand
battle with the West that would bring along the end of the world.
The
prophecies ISIS relies on were written dozens and sometimes hundreds of
years after Muhammad’s death and are not included in the Quran, as
Brookings scholar Will McCants explains in his book “The ISIS
Apocalypse.” But the prophecies are widespread and believed by many — one poll in 2012 suggested half of Arabs believed the end of the world was nigh.
In
ISIS’ interpretation, the figure of the Mahdi, or “the rightly guided
one” will appear to lead final battles against the Western infidels,
called Rome, in northern Syria before the end of days. After the day of
judgment, only those who supported the Mahdi will be saved. The Mahdi
will appear after the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. (Medieval
caliphs, attempting to gin up support for their own battles against the
Christian crusaders, claimed to be the Mahdi in the past.) In some of
the prophecies, Jesus descends from the heavens to assist the Mahdi in
his battle against the infidels, who are led by an Antichrist figure.
ISIS
leadership has made key military decisions based upon these prophecies.
It fought in the summer of 2014 to take over the small and militarily
unimportant village of Dabiq close to Turkey because it is name-checked
in one of the prophecies as a place where the final great battles will
occur. The infidels are supposed to gather under “80 flags” in this
village, before their defeat. (Dabiq is also the name of ISIS’ monthly
magazine.)
ISIS’ claim that the apocalypse is nigh is a powerful recruitment tool, not unlike an “Act now! 24 hours only!” sales pitch.
“The
belief that the end of the world is coming and you’re going to be
fighting on the side of the good guys when the world ends is a powerful
motivator,” McCants told Yahoo News. “Young people going to join [ISIS]
believe they are participating in a apocalyptic prophecy.”
“The
really interesting thing here from the psychological perspective is the
sense of urgency,” said John Horgan, a psychologist and terrorism expert
at Georgia State University. “They’re sending the message that the
forces of evil are about to reach their goals so you need to act now
rather than later. You don’t have the luxury of waiting for this to
happen.”
It’s
unknown if the leadership of ISIS really believes in these prophecies
or is simply using them to establish legitimacy in the eyes of their
supporters. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has a Ph.D. in Quranic
studies.
McCants tracked down
examples of ISIS supporters and members trying to fit current events
into the murky and sometimes conflicting timeline of the prophecies. “Thirty states remain
to complete the number of eighty flags that will gather in Dabiq and
begin the battle,” one jihadi Tweeted, seemingly waiting for more
nations to sign on to fight ISIS before the last grand battle could
occur and usher in the end of the world.
One can imagine ISIS
leaders running into trouble if their apocalyptic vision takes too long
and supporters begin asking questions and become impatient.
“Part of why ISIS is trying to goad the West into action is it’s a critical part of fulfilling their prophecies,” Horgan said.
The
group has also refrained from explicitly calling its leader al-Baghdadi
the Mahdi, which means its followers know they have to wait for him to
appear before the world is ending. Sunni and Shiite beliefs about the
Mahdi diverge in one key way: Sunni Islam, the branch of the religion
ISIS adheres to, posits that the Mahdi, the prophet’s successor, has yet
to come. According to the Shiite tradition, the Mahdi came but will
remain hidden until he brings justice to the world.
That
fighters believe they are fulfilling a grand destiny helps explain why
thousands of them have been willing to leave more comfortable lives in
nations all around the world to join the dangerous and reviled group.
“It’s definitely more cultlike than al-Qaida,” said Karen Greenberg, the
director of Fordham’s Center on National Security. “It’s got all the
accouterments of a cult.”
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